Lessons from the Lightning Collapse of Bashar’s Regime

巴沙尔政权闪崩对专制政权的警示

by Zhao Xiao (赵晓)

【Editor’s Note: Bashar’s regime in Syria collapsed with unprecedented speed, highlighting the recurring “support curse” that seems to haunt authoritarian leaders once endorsed by certain figures. As with Saddam and Gaddafi before him, Bashar’s fall stemmed from internal corruption, economic collapse, and external neglect, underscoring the inevitability of popular judgment over autocratic rule. Historical anecdotes, like Bashar’s visit to Hangzhou’s Lingyin Temple for fortune-telling, now appear as ironic symbols of foreboding. The article reflects on lessons from this collapse: the futility of defying historical trends, the limitations of public endorsements driven by ideology, and the importance of values like justice and moral governance. Drawing from Biblical and conservative wisdom, it asserts that stable societies rely on ethical foundations, not coercive power. While Bashar’s fall disrupts alliances in the Middle East, it also opens possibilities for a freer, more inclusive regional order. Ultimately, history favors truth and justice over fleeting autocracies.】

History often plays the role of a theatrical scriptwriter, while human beings find themselves delivering lines they’ve been handed. In just a matter of days, the regime of Bashar (巴沙尔) collapsed with startling speed—perhaps even accompanied by sound effects of its own.

01 The Mysterious Power of the “Support Curse”

This so-called “curse” feels like a soap opera brimming with twists. Every time certain commentators solemnly “throw their support” behind some bewitching Big Boss, it seems that those receiving this “blessing” have actually purchased a ticket on a sinking ship, promptly sailing toward their Waterloo. Saddam (萨达姆), Gaddafi (卡扎菲), Milošević (米洛舍维奇)... and now Bashar (巴沙尔). The line grows ever longer.

Yet, as Mark Twain (马克·吐温) once said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” Instead of blaming these defeats on a curse, it might be more accurate to note that the scripts those dictators wrote for themselves were downright melodramatic. After all, regimes stained with blood, incapable of governing, and stubbornly deaf to their people’s voices are fated to topple—merely a logical plot twist.

02 Syria: From Blitzkrieg to Lightning Collapse

Bashar’s (巴沙尔) regime crumbled at near-textbook speed. In this “flash drama,” the opposition forces swept through the country like a gaming squad on a winning streak, eventually closing in on the presidential palace. Bashar himself may not have had time for more than a quick peek from behind the curtains before history pronounced its verdict.

If Saddam (萨达姆) fell under the clanking of American tanks and Gaddafi (卡扎菲) succumbed to a rebellion aided by air strikes. Bashar’s downfall was orchestrated by internal decay and external indifference—a “multi-front popcorn movie” produced by multiple forces.

First, there were internal woes: Syria’s economy had collapsed, prices were skyrocketing, and popular discontent had long reached a boiling point. Second, there were external troubles: Russia was preoccupied with its own affairs, Iran was reeling from sanctions, and neither had the bandwidth to intervene. Third, there was a “kite effect”: once internal corruption meets external pressure, it’s merely a matter of time before the string snaps and the regime plummets.

03 Seeking Answers in the Historical Comment Stream

Looking back at history, it’s striking how these regimes receiving high-profile support always seem to be teetering on collapse, eventually stepping into the void. General Zhang (张将军) once offered a confident “pocket formation” analysis about the Iraq War, only for the Iraqi army to vanish—whether into tunnels or somewhere else—who knows? Then there’s General Jin (金将军), championing Bashar (巴沙尔) with the rallying cry “We’ve got this,” only to watch him fall almost instantly.

It recalls Simone de Beauvoir’s (波伏娃) famous remark: “People aren’t condemned by their past but by their choices.” Each regime that received resounding support had already begun digging its own grave the moment it chose to oppress its citizens.

04 A Curious Interlude at Lingyin Temple in Hangzhou (杭州灵隐寺)

Images and footage have circulated showing Bashar (巴沙尔) and his family visiting Lingyin Temple in Hangzhou (杭州灵隐寺) last year to draw fortune slips. What seemed a trivial anecdote now feels like cinematic foreshadowing: some joke that perhaps the slip he drew was a “bad lot,” while others see it as a “futile rehearsal of fate.”

As it says in the Book of Galatians (加拉太书) 6:7: “A man reaps what he sows.” Drawing lots and praying are external rituals that betray a hollow quest for comfort. The real determinant of destiny is a regime’s own conduct and moral foundation. Divine justice, like the sun, shines on schedule no matter how hard one tries to block it.

Photo from September 2023: President Bashar (巴沙尔) visiting Lingyin Temple in Hangzhou (杭州灵隐寺)

05 The Lessons Behind the Curse

After seeing all this, perhaps we can glean some insights and learn a few lessons.

First, we cannot defy the fate decreed by history: no autocracy can rely on external support to forestall the ultimate judgment of its people. Second, public opinion is not a panacea: those who pledge support are often bound by ideology, swimming against the current of history. Time and again, when the tide recedes, it’s clear who has been left swimming naked. Third, values are what truly matters: for anyone trying to establish legitimacy by “taking sides,” it might be worth asking whether standing with justice is really so difficult.

06 The Wisdom of Faith and Conservatism

Amid this historical storm, Christianity provides another lens for reflection. I once delved into the Bible in search of the secret to a nation’s rise, only to come away with two words: justice matters. The Book of Proverbs (箴言) 14:34 reads, “Righteousness exalts a nation,” and 29:4 states, “By justice, a king gives a country stability, but those who are greedy for bribes tear it down.” A regime’s legitimacy—indeed, a nation’s prosperity—does not stem from brute force or military might but from its commitment to justice, compassion, and truth.

Conservative wisdom cautions us that a stable society is anchored by sound institutions and moral restraint rather than shortsighted political maneuvers. As Edmund Burke (埃德蒙·伯克) observed, “The relationship between the people and the government should be built on trust, not fear.”

07 The Future of the Middle East: Hope and Challenges

With Bashar’s (巴沙尔) downfall, Iran’s so-called “resistance arc” fractures, and Russia’s influence in the Middle East decreases markedly. Some suggest this development may pave the way for greater peace in the region, though forging a new order is never simple. We can at least hope that more voices will be heard and that more people will be granted freedom and dignity.

08 Whose Side Does History Stand On?

Watching the “lightning collapse” of Bashar’s (巴沙尔) regime, one can’t help but wonder: do those who pledge their support truly love their idol—or simply themselves? Rather than attributing events to a curse, perhaps we should turn our gaze toward the glittering firmament and ask who truly governs history and on whose side history will ultimately stand. As Winston Churchill famously remarked, “Truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is.”

Published December 24, 2024

This translation is an independent yet well-intentioned effort by the China Thought Express editorial team to bridge ideas between the Chinese and English-speaking worlds. The original text is available here:

http://hx.cnd.org/2024/12/24/%e8%b5%b5%e6%99%93%ef%bc%9a%e5%b7%b4%e6%b2%99%e5%b0%94%e6%94%bf%e6%9d%83%e9%97%aa%e5%b4%a9%e7%9a%84%e5%90%af%e7%a4%ba%e4%b8%8e%e5%8f%8d%e6%80%9d/

Kindly attribute the translation if referenced.