The U.S. Trade War: From Trump 1.0 to 2.0 ——Preface to the 2025 New York Edition of The United States Trade War

美国贸易战从特朗普1.0到2.0---《美国贸易战》2025年纽约版序言

By Ren Jingjing (任晶晶)

【Editor’s note: The preface to the 2025 New York Edition of The United States Trade War examines the evolution from Trump’s initial trade war (1.0) to a more aggressive trade war 2.0. In the earlier phase, tariffs and sanctions were primarily aimed at China but ultimately affected all major U.S. trading partners. Trump’s actions, driven by domestic political demands and the need to secure conservative votes, transformed external economic policies into tools of internal consolidation. In trade war 2.0, these measures have expanded to target traditional allies, including Canada, Mexico, the EU, and others, intensifying global economic disruption. The analysis argues that nationalism should not dictate responses; instead, China should pursue globalization, adhere to WTO rules, and strengthen its domestic market. By reflecting on the previous trade war’s lessons, the book emphasizes rational conflict resolution, multilateral cooperation, and strategic adaptation to safeguard stability and promote mutual global prosperity. This review offers timely insights.】

As I write this preface to the reissued edition, we find ourselves confronting a dramatic yet intriguing international scenario: President Trump, following a turbulent first term, has been dramatically re-elected and has swiftly initiated what can aptly be described as a global trade war 2.0 against major economic powers, including Canada, Mexico, the European Union, and China. Unlike the hesitant scrutiny or outright skepticism that greeted the original Trump trade war 1.0, this "fully upgraded" version has quickly inflicted sharper pressures and shocks on nations worldwide.

Upon re-reading this book, one cannot help but marvel at how its original observations and analysis regarding Trump’s first trade war, as well as the macro-level scrutiny of American motivations, offer profound insights into understanding—and even managing—the implications of trade war 2.0. Here, I wish to revisit and reassess the core arguments of this slim volume, exploring how these perspectives illuminate the ongoing, intensified trade confrontations and how China might learn from the earlier experience to adapt strategies and attitudes accordingly. Indeed, it is precisely the present moment that necessitates this reissue.

Overview of the Book’s Core Arguments

When addressing Trump’s trade war 1.0, this book clarified an essential fact: actions taken by the U.S. government during the trade war, though seemingly directed primarily at China, were, in reality, aimed at every nation engaged significantly in trade with America. The trade war was not an isolated maneuver against any single nation; rather, it was a widespread imposition of tariffs and sanctions initiated by Trump to secure domestic votes and fulfill U.S. domestic political demands. The book repeatedly underscores this point as pivotal to grasping the true intentions of the U.S. government. As the author argues, Trump did not harbor extreme animosity toward China; instead, from the outset of his presidency, he recognized the necessity of taking dramatic action to consolidate his political base. Under pressure from congressional elections and bipartisan conflicts, he consistently opted to escalate the trade war, deliberately inflaming nationalist sentiments among American voters.

Based on this fundamental insight, the book offers a rational perspective distinct from much domestic opinion: that nationalism alone should not dictate responses to American trade pressures. Discussing the trade disputes around 2018, the author frequently reminded readers that America's trade war was less about antagonizing the Chinese people and more about addressing internal U.S. politics. After detailed analyses of postwar American history, U.S. political mechanisms, and Trump's governing style, readers are advised that China need not confront American tariffs by inciting nationalist fervor. Rather, it should resolve conflicts through globalization, legality, adherence to WTO rules, and leveraging its enormous market potential to mitigate adverse impacts.

This viewpoint remains highly relevant today. Examining "trade war 2.0," Trump's broader escalation now targets not just China but also traditional allies such as Canada, Mexico, the EU, Japan, and South Korea. Clearly, as the author argued, America’s fundamental intention is not an isolated battle against any single nation but rather leveraging unilateral actions for domestic political gains. This insight, accurate in 2018, continues to be validated repeatedly today.

Characteristics and Insights of Trump’s Trade War 2.0

From Spot Conflict to Encirclement

During "Trade War 1.0," Trump, newly elected, urgently sought to win over conservative factions and blue-collar voters by making China his main target, simultaneously provoking tariff disputes with the EU, Japan, and Canada. Yet, at that time, Trump moderated his tactics through intermittent threats and short-term agreements to stabilize domestic markets and expectations.

In trade war 2.0, Trump appears more aggressively willing to impose extreme tariffs and punitive measures against all nations perceived as threats to U.S. profit margins. Yet, fundamentally, these actions remain closely tied to domestic political necessities: Trump's foremost priority following re-election has been addressing domestic turmoil from the pandemic, industrial stagnation, inflation, and debt issues. To quickly satisfy voters, Trump resorts to external scapegoating, fueling nationalism to sustain populist momentum.

Consequently, nations previously engaged bilaterally with the U.S. now simultaneously find themselves coerced into negotiations, exacerbating global trade order disruptions. The practices of unilateralism, treaty withdrawal, and rule-breaking have intensified significantly.

Heightened Political Nature of the Trade War

While originally an economic tool, the trade war under Trump—both initially and presently—has become highly politicized, serving the president's domestic and electoral objectives. This aligns with the book’s portrayal of Trump as capricious, vindictive, and politically calculating. Increasingly isolated domestically and internationally, Trump has grown more extreme in his tactics, even willing to fracture alliances to project strength.

Consequently, international negotiations under Trade War 2.0 have grown even more complicated. Nations must navigate U.S. bipartisan struggles, White House-Congress tensions, and Trump’s strained relationships with military, intelligence, judicial, and commercial sectors, creating unprecedented uncertainty.

Increased Costs of Decoupling Amid Interdependence

During Trade War 1.0, concerns were partially mitigated through supply chain adjustments and monetary policies. Yet, after years of Sino-American tensions and COVID-19 disruptions, nations recognize the prohibitive costs of extensive decoupling, potentially harming domestic societies significantly.

Trump’s policies have failed to fully revive American manufacturing; instead, they have intensified domestic inflation and supply shortages. High tariffs on China, a double-edged sword, have paradoxically increased the trade deficit at times and harmed American multinational corporations reliant on Chinese suppliers, resulting in a "riding-the-tiger" dilemma.

Impact of Trade War 2.0 on Global Stability

Macro-level, intensified trade conflicts between major powers carry unpredictably destructive consequences for global economics and stability:

Severe Challenges for Multilateral Trade Systems

Trump’s "America First" agenda increasingly threatens international frameworks such as the WTO, World Bank, and IMF. Continued undermining of these institutions could escalate global economic volatility.

Disruption of Global Capital Flows and Supply Chains

Heightened uncertainty forces multinational corporations to restructure supply chains regionally, promoting "de-globalization" trends and possibly catalyzing new geopolitical trade blocs.

Escalation into Wider Conflicts

Trade wars frequently coincide with broader confrontations involving finance, technology, and military affairs. Trump’s bundling of negotiations across multiple domains has notably expanded potential threats to regional and global peace.

Lessons from Trade War 1.0

China’s experience from the first trade war, extensively analyzed in this book, provides critical lessons:

Leveraging Multilateral Frameworks

China should persistently seek resolution within the WTO framework, garnering international alliances to balance unilateral pressures.

Boosting Domestic Market and Consumption

Internal structural reforms and heightened domestic consumption are vital for sustaining economic resilience amid external shocks.

Avoiding Excessive Nationalism

The book repeatedly warns that stirring nationalism offers superficial, short-term relief but exacerbates vulnerabilities. Focusing instead on industrial upgrades and openness remains strategically prudent.

China’s Opportunity and Responsibility

Initially, this book examined why Trump waged trade wars, concluding they stem from domestic U.S. political calculations rather than anti-national animosity. This logic remains valid, affirming that internal American conflicts drive external unpredictability.

The renewed trade war underscores how unilateralism from a major power breeds global instability. Mitigating this demands international cooperation, multilateral adherence, openness, and fairness—an agenda in which China can both safeguard its interests and champion mutual global prosperity.

This volume’s reissue remains timely, valuable for elucidating historical logic and illuminating complex interactions between American politics and global trade. As the author notes, China’s development cannot be halted externally, but navigating conflicts calmly and rationally is crucial—not merely as risk management but as a maturation process.